The Paris Agreement goal of capping global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius will slip beyond reach unless nations act now to slash carbon pollution, curb energy demand, and suck CO2 from the air, according to a draft UN report.
Without such efforts, “holding warming to 1.5C (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the 21st Century [is] extremely unlikely,” said the 1,000-page report, prepared by hundreds of scientists.
“There is a very high risk that under current emissions trajectories, and current national pledges, global warming will exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.”
On current trends, Earth’s thermometer will cross that threshold in the 2040s, said the report.
The greenhouse gas emissions guaranteeing that outcome will have been released within 10 to 15 years.
Under any scenario, there is no model that projects a 66-per cent-or-better chance of holding global warming below 1.5C, the synthesis of recent scientific studies concluded.
With 2C, according to our models, sea level …